The amount of marine life off north-east Greenland could expand by more than a quarter, according to new research.

But the University of Strathclyde study also indicates that polar bears will suffer declines of two-thirds as hunting grounds on sea ice drastically reduce.   

The research has modelled the effects of climate change on the north-east continental shelf over five decades up to the 2050s. The results indicate that, as the region becomes seasonally ice-free, more sunlight penetrates the water and would trigger a “trophic cascade”.

This would result in an increase in total living mass of more than 25%, with disproportionate benefits for fish, seabirds, and cetaceans, supported by the growth of food sources such as phytoplankton and zooplankton.  

Speed of transitions 

The speed of the transitions reflects the fact that climate change is progressing more rapidly at the poles than anywhere else on Earth.

The study reveals future opportunities for managing Greenland’s ecosystem and environment amid climate change, and the need for policies to realise them. It has been published in the journal Global Change Biology.  

Dr Jack Laverick, lead researcher from Strathclyde’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics, said: “There has been relatively little research into this area of Greenland, partly because it simply hasn’t been possible to look beneath the ice.    

Our modelling suggests that the transitioning in Greenland’s waters will be similar to the increase in ice-free regions in the Barents Sea. It shows that it is the indirect effect of climate change melting sea-ice which is responsible for this boost in productivity, rather than changes in temperatures or currents as such.

“In the future, polar bears may have to meet their requirements from hunting grounds on sea-ice which are seasonally about five orders of magnitude smaller and conservation efforts could focus on securing sources of food for them.

“Melting sea ice will also make Arctic seas more accessible and it’s likely that fisheries will want to exploit this new resource. Our research will help to inform the limits of production and how these may evolve over time; this information will be necessary to avoid over-fishing in these regions.”